If You Give a Mouse an Estrogen

Split Decisions

How do you feel about the economy? Are you optimistic? Pessimistic?

How did you feel about the economy eight weeks ago?

Unless you are an actual economist, your opinion is probably driven more by your political identity than your thoughts on the Consumer Price Index.

Check out the latest data from the University of Michigan’s monthly survey of consumer sentiment:

Just to show this isn’t an outlier, here’s a chart based on a separate dataset:

The trend is clear: Republican in charge, red line go up. Democrat in charge, blue line go up.

Poller Coaster

The idea that Americans view the economy through a partisan lens is not all that surprising. We know that we are in a hyper-partisan time, and the “economy” is a fairly nebulous concept for most people.

But this week I saw a chart that stopped me in my tracks (ok, doomscroll):

Just look at the right side of that chart! At exactly the same time (roughly the last few weeks), Republicans’ support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took a nosedive, dropping roughly 40 percentage points, while Democrats’ view of the man increased rapidly, by about 13.

Even by today’s standards, that’s pretty dramatic.

The chart can’t tell us why this happened. Fortunately, this week’s episode of The Focus Group podcast offers some insight.

On the podcast, The Bulwark’s Sarah Longwell and Pod Save America’s Tommy Vietor discussed audio from a focus group of people who voted for Trump in 2024 and support US aid to Ukraine.

The group shared some thoughts that surprised me, but provide context for that chart:

• “The amounts that the prior administration were[sic] giving to Ukraine need to be lowered drastically. We should not be funding parades, pride month, surgeries.”
  

• “We do need to continue, I think, to help, but there’s a lot of things that can be cut. Like he said, surgeries, gay pride. You know, these things that we’re helping with that’s unnecessary and if we continue to provide the financial for that, it’s never going to end, they’re just gonna keep asking for help with their hand out.”
  

• “I do agree that we should help them but not as much as we have and not now especially after we’ve found out that they’ve been using the money that was given to them for different stupid stuff, like fashion shows and whatever, like do they really need the money, or do they not need the money?”

It’s ok if you’re not totally up on geopolitics, or the ins-and-outs of our relationship with Ukraine. And if you don’t know what these focus group members are talking about, you’re in good company.

Apparently, the right wing media ecosystem (Fox news, conservative talk shows and podcasts, publications like the Daily Wire) has been pushing the idea that Zelensky is corrupt and that our money is being used for nefarious reasons.

The smears are having their desired effect.

Two Theories of the Case

There are at least two ways of looking at these charts. The first is depressing: reality doesn’t matter anymore, we’re just blue and red dots mindlessly following the crowd.

The second is more empowering: public opinion can change on a dime, and the most powerful way to achieve that change is by telling convincing stories through multiple channels.

It’s probably a little from column A, a little from column B.

What’s the Story with USAID?

Let’s look at another topic on which Republicans and Democrats disagree: The United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

So far, same story. Republicans and Democrats have opposing views of USAID.

But here’s an interesting thread from the same poll:

Apparently, new information and framing can still sway Americans.

That might be why President Trump used his Joint Address to Congress this past week to paint USAID projects as frivolous and unnecessary. A few excerpts:

• “$8 million to promote LGBTQI+ in the African nation of Lesotho, which nobody has ever heard of.”

• “$8 million for making mice transgender. This is real.”

• “$10 million for male circumcision in Mozambique.”

• “$47 million for improving learning outcomes in Asia.  Asia is doing very well with learning. Don’t know what we’re doing.  We should use it ourselves.”

The transgender mice thing got a lot of attention.

Initially, Trump critics assumed he and his team had simply misread/misunderstood transgenic mice. And they had some fun with it:

When the White House doubled down on the claim, it became clear that they were referring to studies using transgenic mice to understand the impact of sex hormones on HIV vaccine immune response, breast cancer risk, asthma, and more.

The phrase “making mice transgender” is silly and misleading. But you have to admit, the stunt was effective. An “issue” representing a tiny fraction of a tiny fraction of the US budget is getting wall-to-wall coverage.

Something to Believe

What have we learned?

The partisan divide is real and pronounced. But, people still respond to clear, compelling stories, especially when they are repeated and reinforced by multiple sources.

There are a bunch of reasons to stay quiet right now. Fear of losing funding, retribution, political attacks. All valid.

But I don’t think we should give up on Americans just yet. People are showing up to protest and demanding more of their representatives. They are looking for something to believe in again.

There’s a persuasion game afoot, and now is not the time to sit on the sidelines.

Around the Internet

• Why We Don’t Trust Doctors Like We Used To

  A Wall Street Journal piece by Clare Ansberry exploring some of the reasons why trust in individual doctors has diminished

• Exclusive: NIH to Terminate Hundreds of Active Research Grants

  March 6th article from Nature reporting that the US National Institutes of Health (NIH) has begun a mass termination of research grants that fund active scientific projects because they no longer meet “agency priorities”.

• RFK Jr. and the Texas Measles Outbreak: Round 2

  Dr. Paul Offit summarizes the HHS Secretary’s statements and actions regarding the ongoing Measles outbreak

Living Rent-Free in My Brain this Week

The Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program offers federal student loan borrowers a path to debt forgiveness. Created by Congress, PSLF forgives student loans for borrowers who make regular payments for 10 years while in public service.

The Executive Order just signed by Trump would alter the criteria for what counts as public service as it pertains to PSLF. Specifically, the EO says public service organizations will be excluded if they engage in activities with a “substantial illegal purpose”.

You’re probably wondering what those activities are. Here are a few:

• Child abuse, including "the chemical and surgical castration or mutilation of children or the trafficking of children to so-called transgender sanctuary"

• Violating federal immigration laws

• State law violations such as "trespassing, disorderly conduct, public nuisance, vandalism, and obstruction of highways."

I have been counting on PSLF to pay off my (not insubstantial) loans from medical school. My employer offers gender affirming care for adolescents.

As a trans adult, and someone who routinely presents on the importance of gender affirming care for youth, I would rather find another way to pay off my loans than lobby my institution to stop offering this care.

But I’m far from the only borrower at my institution. Perhaps others will arrive at a different decision.

Now, this EO is probably illegal and will hopefully not be put into practice.

Even if it gets held up by the courts, I worry that the damage will already be done. They are creating scapegoats and pitting citizens against one another.

It’s a dangerous time.

Quote I Like

Thanks for reading. Hang in there, everybody.

Ky

Did you find this newsletter interesting? Forward it to a friend

Are you that lucky friend? Subscribe to this newsletter for free

I’ve been spending [too much] time on Bluesky. If you have an account, you can find me @kyanlynch.bsky.social

This newsletter will always be free.

If your love language is buying people coffee: