Feeling Foggy? You're Not Alone.

The Fog of War

You’ve probably heard the phrase, “fog of war”. But where did it come from?

Prussian military analyst Carl von Clausewitz wrote about a “fog of greater or lesser uncertainty” in the first volume of his 1830s series On War. He was describing the chaotic, high-stimulus/low-information environment in which military commanders have to make life-or-death decisions.

Over time, military commentators refined and simplified the term to “fog of war”.

Recognizing how debilitating it can be, the United States military started to artificially create these fogs as a form of psychological warfare in World War I, using two main strategies:

1. Cutting off or censuring sources of accurate information

2. Overwhelming people with a lot of information, much of it conflicting

Annalee Newitz describes the impact like this:

A Lot Going on at the Moment

The past two weeks have packed in two years' worth of news.

26 executive orders, 12 memos, 4 proclamations. And that was just on day 1.

Then came:

Withdrawal from WHO. Global aid cut off. CIA report on COVID-19’s origin. DEI initiatives ended. Biological sex “redefined”. ICE raids at schools and churches. Global aid reinstated. Grants frozen. Employees invited to resign. Grants unfrozen. CDC sites removed. FBI purge…

And it’s not just the sheer number of actions.

Each new piece of information launches a series of questions:

• Is that legal?

• How is that going to work?

• Does that take effect immediately?

• Who is impacted?

This all amounts to a situation where you know a lot is happening, but you don’t know what is happening.

In other words, a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.

Infodemic

An infodemic is much like a fog of war applied to an epidemic:

Like the fog of war, infodemics are destabilizing. They induce a wide variety of responses:

Defogging

You are currently living in a fog of war - or something near to it.

As a result, you might be feeling a range of emotions: anxiety, anger, helplessness, defiance, distress, nihilism, fatigue, etc.

Whatever you are feeling is normal. 

We weren’t built for this kind of informational onslaught - that’s why it’s a successful military weapon.

So what should we do?

You know what works best for you, and you should listen to and trust yourself.

But if you’re looking for places to start, here are a few suggestions:

• Spend 20 minutes a day alone with your thoughts

  I’m borrowing this one from Chris Hayes (who borrowed it from Jenny Odell, who borrowed from Kirkegaard). The argument is that we all need to spend time in conversation with ourselves; to build up our ability to refuse distraction and to understand what we truly believe when everyone else’s voices go quiet.

• Talk to your circle about how you share information

  In WWI, the United States’ Propaganda Section dropped millions of leaflets on the German people to undermine their morale. Nowadays, we use screens for things like that. This is good and bad. The bad news is that the onslaught of information is constant and with us at pretty much all times. The good news is that the propaganda no longer falls on our heads. We control the spigit.
  
  While it isn’t reasonable to avoid screens for 4 years, we can talk to our circles about how/when/if we send each other ‘news’ updates. Do we text incendiary articles? Send emails? Screenshot things we see on social media? Avoid the news when together in person? Make sure we have two sources before sharing? There’s no right or wrong answer, but the point is that you get to make your own rules.

• Recognize and connect emotions to behaviors

  To again quote Senft and Greenfield, “Emotions can trigger behaviors in individuals. When related to overload, these behaviors can range widely. However, there is one thing that they all have in common: in some ways, they all represent attempts to soothe, lessen, or eliminate negative emotions.” It’s a good idea for us all to keep an eye on the emotions driving our behaviors.

Around the Internet

• LinkedIn Post: “The strategic exploitation of cognitive limits”

  Swiss sociologist Jennifer Walter offers some good food for thought and strategies for remaining clear despite the overload.

• People Who Get Most of Their News From Social Media Sources Are More Likely to Think Climate Change Is a Conspiracy: Study
  Research on how our news sources impact our civic values scales. One idea that stuck with me: “it is not enough to provide people with accurate information. What counts is the mindset they bring to that information”.

• Do People Want to Hear About Uncertainty?
  Short answer: yes. This new piece from Dr. Sara Gorman goes over a relevant study and how we can communicate uncertainty in ways that gain trust.

• How to create a public health disaster

  A short video connecting current science denialism and its potential consequences to the politically-driven and preventable HIV/AIDS outbreak in South Africa at the start of this century. My one small quibble: could’ve used at least one line about how LGBT people fought to get the research leading to the miraculous ARTs.

• “RFK Jr Testifies, MAHA Flexes, and Public Health Panics”

  An episode from “Why Should I Trust You?”, a weekly podcast that looks at the breakdown in trust for science and public health. The first 40 minutes features a conversation with Travis Tripodi, an ambassador with Braver Angels, health tech consultant, and supporter of RFK Jr.

  I’ll be honest, I had a tough time listening and wanted to shut it off multiple times. But I know I need to improve my ability to calmly listen and respectfully engage with people who share Travis’ views. A couple of phrases I heard that I want to keep an eye on: “two things can be true at once” and “anti-credentialism”.

Living Rent-Free in My Brain this Week

I think it’s generally true that we should ignore the daily bluster and focus on impact, for both our sanity and efficacy.

But Anne Applebaum’s warning is worth squirrelling away and revisiting from time to time.

Quote I Like

Thanks for reading. Hang in there, everybody.

Ky

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